Tampa Bay Asking Prices Are Down 6.6%. Sale Prices Aren't

Tampa Bay asking prices just fell faster than almost anywhere in the country. Sale prices didn't.

That's the whole story right now. And if you're buying, selling or investing anywhere from St. Pete to Wesley Chapel, you need to understand that gap. Because that gap is where your money gets made or lost.

So let's break it down. Four things-

Number one: the asking price is falling

Realtor.com's September report has the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro's median listing price at $385,398. That's down 6.6% from a year ago. Measured by price per square foot, Tampa Bay was down 6%. Out of the 50 biggest metros in the country, only Austin dropped more.

And 27.5% of Tampa Bay listings had a price cut. Nationally? 20.8%.

Here's what people miss. Inventory didn't go up. Active listings were actually down 3.8%, and new listings were down 2.1%. So this isn't a flood of homes. It's sellers who listed too high and the market is balancing it self again, meaning they are dropping price.

Number two: the sale price is holding

Now look at what homes actually closed for. Stellar MLS data for September, county by county:

• Hillsborough: median sale price $388,000, down 1.8% from a year ago

• Pinellas: $385,000, up 5.5%

• Pasco: $339,900, up 2.9%

That's not a sign of a crash. In Pinellas and Pasco, the September median actually went up. Its strengthening.

So how do asking prices drop 6.6% while sale prices barely move? Simple. The homes priced right are selling. The homes priced wrong are sitting, getting cut, and dragging the average asking price down. At the end of the day, the list price is a wish, unless you have the right person or information in front of you. The sale price is the market.

Number three: the gap is your negotiating room

Here's where it gets real.

The Chart I pulled from Stellar MLS show the Sale Price to List Price 97.9%, down from 98.1% in August. That difference is the price cuts. It's the money sellers left on the table by starting too high. I have had multiple deals this year where we were competing with multiple offers, so the proof is in the market. The homes priced right go fast and possibly for more.

And time tells the same story. In that same report, the median home that sold took 46 days. The median home still on the market had been sitting 82 days. Redfin has Hillsborough at 68 days on market, up from 51 a year ago.

Every county's a little different:

• Hillsborough is the fastest, with a median of 38 days to sell and 4.8 months of supply.

• Pinellas has the deepest supply at 5.5 months, and sales there averaged 91.6% of original list.

• Pasco sits at 4.7 months of supply with a median 50 days to sell.

And remember the payment. Freddie Mac has the 30-year fixed at 7.40% as of Oct. 15. A year ago it was 6.27%. That's what's squeezing buyers, and that's why sellers are cutting.

Number four: Pasco is still building, and money is still moving

If you're in Wesley Chapel or Zephyrhills, pay attention to this one.

Census permit data has Pasco County at 6,310 housing units permitted through August. Only Lee and Miami-Dade permitted more in Florida. That's new construction competing directly with resale, and builders can offer incentives a regular seller can't.

The long-term growth conversation hasn't stopped either. On Oct. 14, the East Pasco Chamber held its 10th annual Zephyrhills Economic Summit, with panels on manufacturing, workforce, and "Roads, Rails, Land & Logistics" featuring CSX, Duke Energy and the Pasco MPO.

And over in St. Pete, here's a deal every investor should study. Houston-based Dinerstein Cos. bought Axio at Carillon, a 298-unit apartment community, for $79.19 million. The seller paid $90.85 million in 2021. That's about 12.8% less, five years later. Pricing from the boom years is getting reset, and buyers with cash are stepping in.

So what do you do?

If you're buying:

1. Pull the price history on every home you like. If it's been cut once, you got room.

2. Don't just negotiate price. Ask for closing costs or a rate buydown. At 7.4%, that can matter more to your payment.

3. In Pasco, run a new build and a resale side by side, on the monthly payment, not the sticker.

If you're selling:

1. Price it off what sold in the last 60 to 90 days, not what your neighbor listed at.

2. Get it right in the first two weeks. The homes that sit are the ones that get cut.

3. Some sellers are waiting to see how the November vote on Amendment 3 shakes out, Bay News 9 reported. That's a personal call. Talk through your numbers both ways before you decide to wait.

If you're investing:

1. Watch the resets. The Axio deal shows 2021 pricing isn't the benchmark anymore.

2. In heavy-permitting areas like Pasco, check rents and days on market before you buy for income. More supply means more competition for tenants.

3. Think long term. The Tampa Bay Partnership found Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco added nearly 100,000 households from 2018 to 2023 but only about 82,000 housing units, and expects that gap to widen through 2035.

The bottom line

You don't win this market by reading headlines. You win it by knowing the difference between what a seller asks and what a house actually sells for. That's what we do every day at K2 Omni Group, across Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco.

Thinking about buying, selling or investing in Tampa Bay? Call or text K2 Omni Group at 813-295-7479 or visit K2OmniGroup.com.

The asking price is a wish. The sale price is the market. Know the difference.