July 9, 2025
Inventory and Buyer Leverage
Active listings are up ~28.9% YoY, though still ~11% below 2019 norms—creating more buyer-friendly conditions in many areas bizjournals.com+7youtube.com+7nypost.com+7tampahomegroup.com+15resiclubanalytics.com+15thekkg.com+15.
Home Prices
National median existing-home price stands at $422,800 (+1.3% YoY in May); Zillow’s ZHVI marks average home value at $367,969, up about 0.8% homesforheroes.com+1zillow.com+1.
Sales Activity
Existing-home sales rose +0.8% from April to May (4.03 million annualized), though still down 0.7% YoY due to high rates youtube.com+13nar.realtor+13nar.realtor+13.
Mortgage Rates & Affordability
30-year rates remain elevated (mid-6% to ~6.9%), which hinders affordability despite signs of stabilization businessinsider.com.
Market Outlook
Experts say this “frozen” market may thaw if rates dip later in 2025—possibly reaching 6.3–6.8%—paving the way for a 2026 rebound news.com.au+9investopedia.com+9moneyweek.com+9.
Median Prices:
~$349,300 in June (+3% YoY); average listing ~$355K (+1.4% YoY) thekkg.com+10rocket.com+10redfin.com+10.
Inventory Surge:
Inventory reached a five-year high (~1,872 homes), with pendings up modestly +0.3% bizjournals.com.
Outlook:
With low supply and steady demand, projections expect ongoing growth of 3–4% in 2025 welcomehomeabq.com.
Takeaway: A balanced-to-slightly-buyer-favored market—with stability and modest upward pressure.
Median Prices:
Dallas city: ~$550K (June), up from $493K last year marketwatch.com+2medium.com+2moneyweek.com+2.
Buyer’s Market Trends:
Inventory rose ~53%, 66% of homes sold under list, average days on market ~24 tampahomegroup.com+15mdregroup.com+15medium.com+15.
New Construction Boom:
DFW ranks #2 nationally for builder permits—signaling continued supply smithteamdfw.com+10dfwurbanrealty.com+10investopedia.com+10.
Takeaway: A strong yet easing market, full of options. Buyers have leverage—especially in resale homes.
Median Prices:
~$842K in June (+4% YoY); luxury segment ~$1.7M, down ~3% from last year guthrieschofieldgroup.com.
Tight Inventory:
Days on market have increased (~33–50 days), but inventory remains very low .
Construction Constraints:
Permit delays are limiting new builds, placing upward pressure guthrieschofieldgroup.com+2whatnow.com+2marketwatch.com+2.
Takeaway: A seller’s market, but with more breathing room for well-priced homes. Competition remains intense.
Median Prices:
~$415–430K (+2.5% YoY) .
Balanced Market:
Sales are slowing slightly (268 vs 296 last year), days on market ~26, inventory slowly rising .
Buyer’s Momentum:
The bay area is trending towards a buyer’s market conditions investopedia.com+15movingtofloridaguide.com+15wsj.com+15.
Takeaway: A transitional phase—still lively, but shifting toward buyers in 2025.
Home Values:
Average home price ~$418,453—down ~3.5% over 12 months zillow.com.
Market Shift:
Listings with price cuts rose to 31.3%; inventory and days on market are growing remmesco.com+15realtor.com+15homesforheroes.com+15.
Outlook:
Market softening: buyers seeing more options and value; a downturn in values expected to continue .
Takeaway: A cooling market—buyers now have negotiating power, and prices may still ease.
Market | Price Trend | Buyer vs. Seller | Key Drivers |
---|---|---|---|
National | +1–2% YoY | Balanced | Rising inventory, high rates, slow sales |
Albuquerque | +3–4% YoY | Balanced/Buyer | Inventory high, steady growth |
Dallas–Fort Worth | Flat to up | Buyer’s Market | New builds, high inventory |
Boston | Luxury softening | Seller’s Market | Low supply, permit delays |
Tampa | +2–3% YoY | Balanced | Cooling demand, slight inventory rise |
Phoenix | –3.5% | Buyer’s Market | Price corrections, rising inventory |
Buyers:
✔️ Prepare your financing now—rates won’t drop much.
✔️ Target markets with higher inventory and growing leverage (Albuquerque, DFW, Phoenix, Tampa).
Sellers:
✔️ In low-inventory regions (Boston, Albuquerque), aggressive pricing still works—but expect rising buyer expectations.
✔️ In cooling markets (DFW, Phoenix), strong staging, pricing, and marketing are critical.
Investors:
✔️ Watch Phoenix and DFW for turnaround opportunities.
✔️ Beware climate/tax challenges in Tampa and Boston; focus on stable growth markets.
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